A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
